Look for a record-setting day from Caitlin Clark and other WNBA All-Star Game predictions (2024)

From the first possession of the 2021 WNBA All-Star Game, the competition level was elevated. The U.S. Olympic team was matched against a collection of WNBA All-Stars who were not headed to Tokyo. “This, right from the tip, felt different,” Sue Bird, a 13-time All-Star, said afterward. “It had an intensity about it. You could tell.”

The game featured 13 ties and 10 lead changes. Team WNBA held Team USA to less than 20 points in two of the four quarters. Jonquel Jones, that season’s WNBA MVP, played 30 minutes. It wasn’t a typical exhibition.

Three years later, with the Paris Olympics set for July 26, the WNBA All-Stars will again face the U.S. national team. On Saturday night, the exhibition will begin in Phoenix. It should become clear early what competition level fans will see.

Earlier this week, The Athletic previewed the game, debating the potential starters for both teams, discussing what Team USA might get out of the game and who we think will win. Presented below are five bold predictions about the showcase.

1. A big will finally win MVP

All-Star Games usually bring out the best in guards. With no stakes, they often trot up the court and fire deep 3-pointers. Get hot — like Jewell Loyd did last year by making an All-Star Game record of 10 3s — and a player seems likely to take home the event’s most important hardware.

Not since Candace Parker in 2013 has a forward or center won the game’s MVP honor. But that will change this year. After last season’s 143-127 affair, Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson and Brittney Griner indicated they would be eying the award this year. All three are certainly skilled enough to earn it, and every positive moment from Griner could feel even more momentous considering she’s playing in front of her home fans. But if I’m picking one big to win MVP, I’m taking the Liberty’s Jones. She has averaged 21 points and 12.3 rebounds in her four prior All-Star Game appearances, and she just missed on the 2021 MVP. If Team WNBA defeats Team USA for the second consecutive cycle, she’ll be a main reason.

2. No player scores 30 points

A decade ago at an All-Star Game in Phoenix, rookie guard Shoni Schimmel set the exhibition’s record, scoring 29 points. A year later, Maya Moore scored 30 points and in 2022 and 2023, at least one player scored 30 points. (Kelsey Plum hit the mark both years, and Loyd set a scoring record last summer with 31).

The recent 30-point showings came in high-scoring All-Star Games. Last year’s exhibition produced 270 combined points. The 2022 game had 246 combined points. Considering the format of this year’s game, expect a lower-scoring contest. In 2021, Team WNBA defeated Team USA 93-85, and only one player (Arike Ogunbowale) scored more than 20 points. I’d bet that history repeats itself and more defense is on display than one might expect.

3. Caitlin Clark sets All-Star assist record

In 2017, Bird set the WNBA All-Star Game record with 11 assists. That record will fall this year as Clark debuts in the game. Sure, the Fever guard will pull up for a few deep 3-pointers, but the All-Star Game really provides a perfect forum for Clark’s passing to shine. She can push the pace and find open teammates streaking up the court or cutting backdoor. Playing alongside some of the league’s top players, she can create magic with new partners and delight the crowd without needing a high-scoring game.

Clark set a WNBA regular-season record with 19 assists Wednesday against the Dallas Wings. So getting 12 dimes Saturday seems even more within reach than it did 48 hours ago. She recorded at least 12 assists 22 times as a college star at Iowa. She’s done so in six of her 26 WNBA games, including five times in her last seven games. Twelve assists is becoming an almost nightly occurrence for the 6-foot guard. Why should the All-Star Game be any different?

4. Ellie the Elephant steals the show

There will be lots of stars on the Footprint Center court Saturday night, including league MVPs, multi-time Olympians and record-setting rookies. Grammy-award winner Pitbull will perform at halftime. But as the New York Liberty surged to a 21-4 record during the first half of the season, one can argue their beloved mascot Ellie drew eyes like no else across the organization.

Best Caption .. Go 😂💅🐘🗽 pic.twitter.com/1SdLz6zaQI

— Ellie The Elephant (@BigEllieLiberty) May 1, 2024

Ellie recently posed for a cover shoot for Time Out New York. Vogue, “Good Morning America” and “CBS Mornings” have covered her this season. ESPN’s Andscape produced a 15-minute video feature on her. Even the author Fran Lebowitz has reflected on Ellie’s ability. That’s just some of the media attention she’s receiving. New York’s opponents have taken note too; during a recent fourth quarter, a few visiting players spent time not checking on their team’s huddle, but watching her famed Ellie Stomp.

For the first time in WNBA history, all 11 mascots will be present. Surely each will have a presence, but no mascot has risen in profile like Ellie. Scorch, the Mercury’s extraterrestrial visitor, might be performing in front of home fans, but that might not matter. Phoenix fans will be spared a trip to New York to watch the famed elephant perform.

5. Team WNBA wins again

The U.S. national team is the most talented collection of 12 players in the world. It is rightfully favored to win an eighth consecutive gold medal. But I am also a bit weary of its chances Saturday night. The main reason: A number of players enter the weekend with nagging injuries. With far bigger goals in mind than an All-Star Game win, putting any additional strain on the likes of Stewart, Napheesa Collier and Diana Taurasi feels unwise. Will coach Cheryl Reeve alter her rotations or be especially mindful of minute loads as a result? That feels like a burning question to ask. (And it’s one we discussed recently.)

Likely playing with added motivation after a loss to Team WNBA in 2021, Team USA also will have held multiple practices leading up to the game and might be crisper. Yet, Team WNBA enters with the freedom of knowing it has a multi-week break to come. Plenty of players — Clark, Jones, Ogunbowale, Kayla McBride, Kelsey Mitchell — could also get hot from deep and shoot their group to a win. Team WNBA celebrates in Phoenix on Saturday while Team USA plays the long game and prepares for a grander celebration in a few weeks.

A few more things to know about the game:

When and where

8:30 p.m. (ET) Saturday, Footprint Center, Phoenix

How to watch

ABC

Rosters

Team USA

New York Liberty: Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu

Las Vegas Aces: A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young

Phoenix Mercury: Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper and Brittney Griner

Minnesota Lynx: Napheesa Collier

Connecticut Sun: Alyssa Thomas

Seattle Storm:Jewell Loyd

Team WNBA

Indiana Fever: Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell

New York Liberty: Jonquel Jones

Chicago Sky: Angel Reese

Connecticut Sun: Brionna Jones and DeWanna Bonner

Atlanta Dream: Allisha Gray

Los Angeles Sparks: Dearica Hamby

Minnesota Lynx: Kayla McBride

Seattle Storm: Nneka Ogwumike

Dallas Wings: Arike Ogunbowale

(Top photo of Jonquel Jones: Evan Yu / NBAE via Getty Images)

Ben Pickman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the WNBA and women’s college basketball. Previously, he was a writer at Sports Illustrated where he primarily covered women’s basketball and the NBA. He has also worked at CNN Sports and the Wisconsin Center for Journalism Ethics. Follow Ben on Twitter @benpickman